Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

Well, in my vast knowledge of all things past/present & future, and after consulting w/ people in the firearms industry and my "Magic 8 Ball"...I think the Great Shortage of '09 is beginning to turnaround. Lots of stuff @ local Gun Shows and the prices are dropping. Local guy is selling out Blazer Brass .45 FMJ 4 Boxes of 50 for $75 otd as example...Couldn't even find the stuff last month in my neck of the woods PERIOD, no less under Twenty Bucks a Box... I'm just sayin' :beer::s1::ok::cooler::banana::elefant:

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

Hopefully. That would be nice, but then it may be followed by taxes now that they got the crowd used to higher prices and see that they will still pay it and continue to stock up.

You may have a point but I wouldn't set a date for the celebration yet. Gun owners must pay for the deaths associated with gun use, just like the smokers have to pay for so called "second hand smoke". It's only fair right?

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

I certainly hopes so. Got plenty back when it was cheaper. Will wait to buy when it drops some.

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

I'd welcome an increase in supply and a decrease in prices. :5_1_120:

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

18.75 a box is still high IMO...

Before the run-up you could get it for 13 at WM but I guess the fact that it's available is a good start.

+1

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

It seems pricing has reached peak levels. I don't think it is a bubble though
The liberal government and most liberals for that matter, want the so called, right wing gun redneck's, guns to be removed from society.
I'm waiting for the announcement from Obama on the new regulations for the purchase and registering of ammunition.

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

i've got my fingers crossed!
ETA: i guess we'll know when the 'bubble' is over when we start seeing the guys that were reported to be definitely not 'gun guys' that bought ammo by the pallatte beginning to unload it all....

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

the shortage of supply more than the price increases has curtailed my shooting some from Thousands of rounds shot a wk to hundreds because i was unsure i could replace my stockpiles at any cost

So availibility and price reduction would be welcomed and my ussage will go back up but i will be doing a careful analysis of how much of a stockpile of ammo i really need

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

Small amounts of .380 are appearing here and there with only marginal increases over previous prices. Rationing is in full effect. Online sales of .380 have adopted gunbroker.com extreme pricing. I'd use .380 as a good indicator because it has proven the most difficult to find and one of the first to really dry up as well.

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

As far as I'm concerned, it's not over yet. When I can go to Natchezss, AmmoToGo, Midway, CTD, or any other website that sells ammo and order any caliber of any brand in any quantity, and for somewhat reasonable price, or go to my local WalMart, Dick's or Academy and see shelves fully stocked - then I'll consider the ammo shortage to be over. Oh, and I also want to be able to buy primers for less than $90 per thousand. :confused_ma:

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

AR prices have come down

you could not find one for under $1,100 (entry level) 2 months ago
now there all over for $800

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

good to know,MM, but $ have not come down in my neck of the woods yet...still no sign of a single polytech legend under folder..:rant:

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

i was getting them for 9 a box before everyone wanted ammo , an there no ammo at walmart an we have 5 stores here

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

I don't know if this is the end, but I agree that it's a bubble.

Prices will definitely come down. If ammo was a stock now would be the time to sell.

We all thought Silver was going to the moon in March 2008 and all fundamental and logical criteria indicated prices were going much higher and we all got it wrong. Supply eventually caught up with demand.

I sure as hell wouldn't sell ammo. But I'm not buying either. That's what 18 months ago was for :s1:

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

I haven't buy a single box of ammo since Obama got elected, but I'm not sure if I can claim a "told you so" seeing as how the bubble lasted an extra couple months vs. when I predicted the top would be. I figured the frenzy would exhaust itself within a couple months of the election. Took a lot longer.

Looking forward to the glut of cheap shit as speculators dump their inventory. $90 stripped AR lowers here we come.

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

Then again, ammunition could be taxed, restricted, or outlawed starting tomorrow and those of you counting on a bursting bubble will be left out.

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

Exactly. No wrong answer. I opted out of Tax Withholding last year(april 08) to buy Guns and Ammo before the bubble started on the off chance the SHTF. Point is: I don't regret the decision. Made with best information I had at the time, and the IRS penalties were the cost of insurance.

Day trading your security is stupid. Dollar cost average that shit.

Since I was already comfortable with my firearm position, I spent the past couple months on tools and medical supplies. :sleep:

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

As the saying goes, "the market can stay irrational much longer than you can stay liquid."

:bear_happy:

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

Huge Truth!!

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

I finally found 380. $29 a box (50) FMJ.....

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

That's a good price (in this market), eat it up. If it's online PM me :). smokewagongear seems to believe a box of 50 FMJ is somehow worth $60+. Personally, I'm holding out for sub $20 for the big spend.

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

It's at a local gun store.

I was out of town and missed some 380 at Walmart the other day. Probably had it for under $20. They now have a 6 box limit. Another local gun store has a 3 box limit.

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

One gun store near me won't sell any ammo unless you purchased your guns from them....another store has a one box limit!!!!!!!!!:s10:Sprts stores near me have no 9mm, 38 special, 40 or 45:36_1_28:

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

I'm gonna hit the local Gun Show Tomorrow AM. I'm set on all my stuff for the most part, but I like to see whats doing w/ the prices etc. and I'm always looking for a good deal in the parking lot. I will check into the .380 situation and if I can find some for a reasonable price, I will snatch it up. I don't own any .380 pistols, but I might be able to help a few of you folks out. Even if not, I don't care. It seems .380 is more valuable than Gold... Just add to the stack...Will report back Tomorrow Evening.:ok::ok::ok:

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

I wouldn't. .380 and 9mm are made on the same production lines. They have to stop producing one caliber in order to produce the other. We may see more availability of .380 and less of 9mm for a while.

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

If some store told me that, I would have a quiet word with the manager that if they stick to that policy, I'll never be back in the store again and I'll tell all my shooting friends not to bother with them either.

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

Bingo!!!!! My sentiments exactly. Time for online order and wait for it:ok:

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

Makes perfect sense as .380 is really just 9mm short. Seems like 2 lines could be run, though. I know very little about the manufacture of ammunition.

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

I find it amazing that with such a strong market for ammo that China or Mexiflu haven't started producing billions of rounds. These countries specialize in sniffing out a money making opportunity and can quickly replicate things like Cisco routers or ipods in any quantity needed. I know nothing about commercial ammo manufacturing, but looking at a shell, how hard can it be? The high volume machinery has certainly been perfected after all these generations and I see no exotic materials being used. I find it baffling and suspect government intervention.

Why is there ZERO .22 ammo in my area past couple of months, but I have no trouble finding blank .22 shells at Home Depot for my ramset tool (Uses a blank cartridge to fire a steel pin into concrete etc.). The shelves are fully stocked too. It's a conspiracy!

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

There hasn't been a mad rush to buy ramset loads, dude. Demand is steady if not weakened by the good deal of contractors going under thanks to the private sector largely shelving any big money projects.

Good points on the lack of foreign market flooding, though.

Final point, where is the looming ban on ramset loads?

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

IDK Ammo from what I can tell ammo is more scarce than ever before. It seemed like 2-6 months ago at least once a month all the major calibers would be in stock but now I haven't found .45Auto anywhere. The Wal-Mart shelves in the 6 or so stores I go in are at an all time low.

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

Those blanks also do not contain a lead projectile which, is in high demand right now and, require casting. The amount of brass they contain is just a drop in the bucket compared to any firearm rounds. Construction is down all over the damn place. Hell, I'm at 4 days/week now or less. As a result, demand for construction materials of all types are way low. This means supplies are readily available. This includes your blank cartridges.

At the local Wally Worlds around me, .22 ammo was the last thing they had sitting on their shelves in bulk. People see this and know that the availability of most other ammo is scant. So, they buy what's available and stock up just for some cheaper shooting. As a result, that has dried up as well.

As far as ammo being made in Mexico, you'd have to be living in a cave to not know about their current situation with the drug cartel. This whole flu thing isn't helping matters either. Besides, there's already some ammo produced there. As a matter of fact, I have 2 differend brands of .22lr that was made there.

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

I know you only have one eye but we are still seeing eye to eye on this one.:ok:

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

Here is hoping!!!!
**Edited for the Spelling NAZIs***

I'll be glad to see some drops in ammo, as I'd love to stock up again.... I think I'm getting too low for my comfort level on almost everything... Doesn't mean I'm out, just too low to burn thought as much as I like to at the range every few weeks.... I like to stay in practice...

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

Jumping up and down helps?
:yippee::23_30_104::elefant::bulride::favorites21: :marchmell:ridinghor:questionm:party30: :minidancesmall::36_1_34::10_1_19::signs14:

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

Local shops are starting to see the return of .223 and 9mm around our town.

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

I'm going to go with "Nope, no way, not yet"

I figure the first sign of the bubble bursting will be when primers are available again. The big manufacturers are making ammo so fast they don't have any primers to spare for what is essentially a secondary market. Once you see primers again at your local merchant of death, that is the sign that the supply bottleneck is easing up.

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

If so, it is just the calm before the storm....

Load up

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

I'm curious if the big customers like the guys on here who buy by the palette can support these prices by themselves? There is a vocal not so minority that seem to have every intention of hoarding any ammo they can find so long as Obama is in office.

^Are their pocket books deep enough to ACTUALLY singlehandedly keep the shelves clean?

Or is this a more spontaneous phenomenon and therefore fickle?


The J6Ps* who are spontaneously hoarding ammo-> how deep down the rabbit hole have they gone? 10,000 rnd goal? Per Caliber?

*(Do they even count as J6P any more when they are stockpiling ammo or are they some sort of hybrid?)

Are we picking up new recruits on the bandwagon as we go? As fast as the we are losing passengers that are satisfied with their stash?


All I can say for sure is: I'm looking foward to estate sales. :yes:

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

My original path to the silver dawn and golden light was paved with ammo.

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

Well I didn't get to the local gunshow this weekend but I heard from several sources (that were at the show) that the ammo glut of 09 has peaked and is on the downslide...Aprils show was insane but it's encouraging to see the volume ammo sales are down from just last month...People are getting fed up with the price gouging dealers and when the prices stabilize, those people will remember who stuck it to em and it will hurt those oppertunists for sure...I feel the bubble is teetering on the edge right now. I have a gut feeling that it's gonna be the same thing that happened to Silver last year...How do I know this? Because I have an uncanny sixth sense that usually finds the top of the market, right before it tanks. Really I don't give a rats a$$ :moon: if the stuff goes to Zero Dollars because I got a lot of hungry mouths to feed (Firearms) and I won't EVER have to stop at Wallyworld before I go to the range...:emotions16:

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/bes...n?iref=24hours

Lou Dobbs on the CTIF Treaty where foreign nations can come in to the US and track our registered guns.

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

This is news to me - it deserves it's own thread. :censored:

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

Can't get it to load...

So, what exactly does that mean...

Re: Is the "Ammo Bubble" about to burst...???
 

CNN.com front page article:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/05/04/amm...age/index.html

AURORA, Colorado (CNN) -- Gun shops across the country are reporting a run on ammunition, a phenomenon apparently driven by fear that the Obama administration will increase taxes on bullets or enact new gun-control measures.

"In the last two months it's gotten very, very difficult to find ammunition," says Richard Taylor, manager of The Firing Line, a gun shop and shooting range in the Denver, Colorado, suburbs.

"There are a lot of rumors floating around that the present government would like to increase taxes on ammunition. I think [there is] just a lot of panicked buying going on."

While campaigning for the White House, Obama supported re-enacting the now-expired ban on assault weapons. But there is no indication that the administration will take up that measure -- or any other gun-control initiative --anytime soon.

Nonetheless, some gun owners aren't taking any chances.

Two weeks ago, The Firing Line was forced to impose a four-box-per-customer limit on ammo. Before that, the shop was selling 10,000 rounds of 9 mm handgun ammunition a day.

Some calibers of ammunition have been unavailable for months.

"Currently no .380 ammunition -- I haven't seen any for about four months ... .38 special, it's been at least a couple of months," Taylor says. "It's just that there's been a huge demand and it's far outweighed supply right now."

Taylor says plenty of people are still coming to the range to shoot, but are gun owners hoarding ammo?

"People are buying cases or whatever they can get their hands on and putting it away, absolutely," he says. "The only way that this shortage can have to do with it is that people are buying and hoarding."

Karl Roos, a physician, stopped by the range to do some shooting with his Smith and Wesson .357-caliber Magnum, using some rounds from his personal stock of ammo.

"I have yet to see .38 special or .357 Magnum ammunition on the shelf. The stuff I'm shooting I've had for several years. I just haven't seen it for the last several months," says Roos, who adds he is always on the lookout for fresh sources of ammo. "As I'm doing the rounds of the local stores that carry ammunition, if I see something on the shelf I'll buy it."

"I'm not too worried about things being banned or anything like that," he says. But he notes that many of his fellow gun enthusiasts are scared: "There's definitely a lot of fear."

Jim Minardi, a gun dealer in Lakewood, Colorado, says only a few people are actually hoarding. But they are buying up so much ammo that there isn't much left on the shelves.

"The minority of our customers are stockpiling ammunition," Minardi says. "The majority are standard shooters buying what they can."

Wal-Mart is one of the largest ammo dealers in the United States. In an e-mail exchange, a Wal-Mart spokesman confirmed that ammo sales have been brisk.

"Some Wal-Mart stores have experienced an increase in demand for guns and ammo and for those locations, we are working closely with suppliers to replenish shelves," says William C. Wertz, the discount chain's divisional director for public affairs and government relations. "In some situations where demand is high, so that we can better serve all customers, we will place a limit on the amount of a product that can be purchased."

"It's no different with ammo than other products (toilet paper, batteries, etc.) that may be in short supply for one reason or another."

Each year U.S. ammo manufacturers make about 8 billion rounds, according to the National Shooting Sports Foundation, the trade association for the firearms and ammunition industry. Current production data won't be in until late May, but the foundation expects the numbers to be way up.

"In order to keep up with demand for ammunition, manufacturers are working at full capacity, 24-7," says Ted Novin, an NSSF spokesman. "Currently demand for ammunition is outpacing supply."

Novin says he believes the reason is clear.

"The increase in demand for firearms and ammunition is largely attributable to gun owner concerns regarding the current political climate," says Novin, referring to the Obama administration and the Democrat-controlled Congress.

"Many of the lawmakers in power have a long history of supporting legislation that violates the Second Amendment rights of law-abiding Americans," Novin adds. "Gun owners recognize this and are reacting accordingly."

Ammunition manufacturers have been scrambling to keep up with demand.

A message from Steve Hornady, president of Hornady Ammunition, on the company's Web site reads:

"Here at Hornady Manufacturing we are breaking our own production records in an attempt to keep up with customer demand. We have added extra shifts, machinery and we are also in the process of expanding our manufacturing plant."

Winchester Ammunition posted a similar statement:

"Winchester Ammunition, like other ammunition manufacturers, has seen the demand for our products increase significantly since last fall. To meet that increased demand, our operations are running 24 hours a day, 7 days a week."

Andrew Arulanandam, communications director of the National Rifle Association, says the "unprecedented ammo shortages are widespread, and they affect small and large retailers."

"We have heard from members across the country in cities and in small towns from California to Maine," Arulanandam says. "There is a fear that Congress or the new administration will push for a firearm or an ammunition ban, or for a significant increase in excise taxes on firearms and ammunition. We hear this from hunters, target shooters and even from first-time gun owners who fear that there will be an effort to incrementally curtail and eventually dismantle this freedom."

Back at The Firing Line's gun range, pilot Ron Cardwell is working on his target shooting with his 9 mm semiautomatic pistol. He loves to shoot and hopes the ammo crisis ends soon.

"I have three or four boxes of 9 mm left at home and a couple of boxes of .45," he says. "I'm just buying as much